Methodology

1. Analytical framework

Revitalize separates three things that are often mixed together in campus climate tools:

1. Inventory series: third-party verified campus emissions totals, in t CO₂e per calendar year, for each campus and year.
2. Policy path: a straight-line reference from the 2019 baseline to the 2045 commitment. This is a goal pace line, not a forecast.
3. Projection modules: (a) a statistical baseline forecast that extends recent inventory trends; (b) a scenario adjustment that subtracts estimated intervention savings from that baseline.

Units are metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (t CO₂e). Time steps are annual. Geography is campus-level (and associated health systems when UC includes them in the campus total).

2. Data sources and processing

All emissions figures come from the UC Annual Report on Sustainable Practices, published by the University of California Office of the President. Each campus submits a third-party verified greenhouse gas inventory annually.

3. Accounting boundary and drivers

Revitalize uses the Scope 1, Scope 2, and identified Scope 3 totals that UC already publishes for each campus. We do not rebuild those inventories from raw meters.

UC's underlying inventories are built the standard way: for each emissions source, multiply how much activity occurred by how carbon-intensive that activity is, then add across sources.

Total emissions = sum over sources of (activity × emission factor)

Activity

A measurable quantity for one source, for example therms of natural gas burned, kilowatt-hours of electricity purchased, or passenger-miles of air travel.

Emission factor

Greenhouse gas intensity for that activity, for example t CO₂e per therm or per kWh. UC (and its verifiers) apply factors appropriate to each source.

Revitalize starts from the finished campus totals after that summation. The cards below describe what those totals usually include.

Scope 1 drivers

Combustion and fugitive release inside the campus boundary (therms, fleet fuel, generators, refrigerants).

Scope 2 drivers

Purchased energy (kWh × carbon intensity). Electrifying Scope 1 fuel shifts energy demand into this scope unless intensity falls.

Scope 3 drivers

Travel and other UC-reported value-chain categories outside the direct campus energy system.

4. Policy reference path

In July 2023, UC adopted a strengthened climate policy requiring each campus and associated health system to reduce total Scope 1, Scope 2, and identified Scope 3 emissions 90% from 2019 levels by 2045, neutralizing residual emissions through carbon removal investments.

2045 target = 10% of 2019 emissions

The charted commitment path is a straight line from each campus's 2019 baseline to that 2045 target. It is a goal pace line for comparing reported progress, not a projection of future emissions.

5. Progress metrics

Climate progress tiers map progress-to-goal onto a 12-rank presentation scale (Bronze through Diamond). The underlying quantity is still progress-to-goal only; tiers are not STARS ratings.

6. Baseline forecast module

For each campus with enough history, Revitalize fits several trend models to the verified emissions series and combines them into a validation-weighted ensemble. Candidate families:

Selection and weights

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) error selects and weights candidates: better validation error gets higher weight. With too few points for LOOCV, in-sample RMSE is the fallback.

Sanity bounds

Candidates projecting negative emissions or unrealistic year-over-year growth are rejected.

Prediction intervals

Approximate 95% ranges around the central forecast, based on model standard error. For ordinary least-squares style models, the interval widens as we project further into the future, so uncertainty for 2045 is larger than for next year.

Interpretation

The central path is a statistical extrapolation of recent inventory history. It does not include announced capital projects unless those projects already show up in the historical series.

7. Coupled scenario module (v2.1)

The what-if tool starts from the baseline forecast, then subtracts estimated savings from three levers: electrify on-campus fuel (Scope 1), buy cleaner electricity (Scope 2), and cut travel/commuting (Scope 3). The levers interact. Electrifying fuel can raise electricity demand; cleaner power reduces both existing and shifted load.

7.1 Effective cut

Each slider sets an intended cut between 0% and 100%. Deep cuts are slightly discounted so the last increments are harder than the first:

effective cut = intended cut × (1 − 0.12 × intended cut)

Example: a 100% lever setting yields about 88% effective cut; a 50% setting yields about 47%.

7.2 Coupled savings at full implementation

Using the latest reported Scope 1, 2, and 3 totals for the campus:

1. Scope 1 savings = Scope 1 total × effective Scope 1 cut.
2. Load shift = 35% of Scope 1 savings (default). Electrified fuel becomes new electricity demand.
3. Residual load = load shift × (1 − effective Scope 2 cut). Whatever cleaner power does not cover remains.
4. Scope 2 savings = Scope 2 total × effective Scope 2 cut.
5. Scope 3 savings = Scope 3 total × effective Scope 3 cut.
6. Pairing bonus = a small extra reduction when electrification and cleaner power move together (default up to 4% of Scope 1 + Scope 2).
7. Net savings = Scope 1 + Scope 2 + Scope 3 savings − residual load + pairing bonus, floored at zero and capped so savings cannot exceed the current campus total.

7.3 Implementation ramp

Net savings do not appear all at once. Over the chosen implementation horizon (default 12 years), they phase in on an S-curve: slower at the start (planning and procurement), faster in the middle, slower again at the end (remaining hard assets).

scenario emissions in year t = max(0, baseline forecast − net savings × ramp progress)

Ramp progress runs from 0 at the start of the scenario to 1 when implementation is complete.

7.4 Structural parameters

These defaults are transparent assumptions for campus-scale stress testing. They are not fitted from building meters. The simulator also draws a shaded structural range by re-running with the load-shift factor at the low and high ends of its range, and with the pairing bonus on and off.

8. Data quality and limitations

• Verified vs. reported: Figures are marked verified after third-party audit. Early report figures may be revised.
• Organizational boundary: Some campuses include associated health centers in totals; others report separately. Always check the campus report.
• UC Merced: Scopes 1 and 2 are reported net of voluntary offsets; Scope 3 is separate.
• Scope 3 revisions: UC expanded Scope 3 categories in recent reports and backfilled to 2019. Revitalize uses the latest published series so baselines match current policy reporting.
• Exclusions: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, and some health centers are outside this undergraduate campus view.
• Scenario layer: Does not model energy markets, radiative forcing, or building-level dispatch. It is an inventory stress test against the 2045 commitment.
• Sample size: Campus series are short. Forecast uncertainty bands are informative but should not be treated as precise probabilistic guarantees.

9. Reproducibility

Inputs and policy parameters are published as open files:

Forecast logic lives in assets/js/forecast.js. Scenario logic and the parameter registry live in assets/js/scenarios.js (model version 2.1).

References

University of California Office of the President. Annual Report on Sustainable Practices. sustainabilityreport.ucop.edu. Accessed 2024-2026.

University of California. Policy on Sustainable Practices. policy.ucop.edu/doc/3100155/SustainablePractices. July 2023.

The Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard (Revised Edition). ghgprotocol.org.